Time: 10:00 am - 11:30 am, June 5th, 2026
Speaker: Tianyu Fan (Yale University)
Venue: Zhifuxuan Classroom, Langrun Garden, Peking University
Abstract:
This paper introduces a new event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment and provides evidence that it shapes economic growth. The measure is built from 373,020 geopolitical events across 193 countries over 1960-2024, compiled using large language models. With local projections exploiting within-country temporal variation, we find that a one-standard-deviation permanent improvement in geopolitical alignment increases GDP per capita by approximately 10 percent over 25 years. These effects are associated with improvements in domestic stability, investment, productivity, trade, and human capital. In illustrative accounting exercises, observed geopolitical changes correspond to GDP differences ranging from about -30 to +30 percent across countries and time periods.
Speaker:
Tianyu Fan received his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University in 2026. He will join Princeton University as a Postdoctoral Research Associate in 2026–2027 and the Chinese University of Hong Kong as an Assistant Professor of Economics in 2027. His research spans macroeconomics, political economy, international economics, and economic growth.