Time: 10:00 am - 11:30 am, June 26th, 2026
Speaker: Jingting Fan (Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business)
Venue: Zhifuxuan Classroom, Langrun Garden, Peking University
Abstract：
Export controls are a central instrument of national security policy, but there is little economic evidence on their trade effects or on the role of multilateral coordination in shaping them. We study U.S. dual-use export controls using new data that distinguish exports with no reported control classification, broad catch-all controls, and exports subject to the more stringent Commerce Control List (CCL), combined with newly digitized data on license outcomes and destination treatment under multilateral export control regimes (MECRs). We show that export controls apply to a large and growing share of U.S. exports and generate meaningful licensing frictions even when shipments are not formally denied. Reduced-form estimates on export values and shipment margins show that MECR membership mitigates these frictions relative to non-members, with MECR destinations facing a licensing ad valorem equivalent export cost that is 29 log points lower for CCL goods. We use these estimates to discipline a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and dual-use civilian and military production. The model implies that multilateral controls are about four times as effective as unilateral U.S. controls in reducing adversaries' military output, but also impose economic and military capability costs on the United States and its allies.
Speaker：
Jingting Fan is an Associate Professor of Economics at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business. Before joining CKGSB, he taught and earned tenure in the Department of Economics at Pennsylvania State University. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Maryland (UMD) in 2017 and holds bachelor's degrees in economics and in mathematics from Tsinghua University. His research combines structural theoretical models with firm-level data, patent records, and e-commerce platform transaction and payment data to analyze the decision mechanisms and economic impacts of multinational firms' offshore R&D and production, talent mobility, and infrastructure investment; he also studies how e-commerce and digital payments can narrow urban–rural consumption and development gaps. His work has appeared in top journals such as the Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economics and Statistics, and Journal of International Economics. He has been invited to deliver talks at leading academic and policy institutions including Yale University, Stanford University, New York University, the Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. Since 2024, he has served as an Associate Editor of Review of World Economics.
