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【10.10讲座】Lorenzo Caliendo: Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock
来源:时间:2018-10-09作者:
Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: 

General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock



Time: 10:30am-12:00pm, Oct 10, 2018

Venue:Room 359S, Overseas Exchange Center, Peking University

Speaker:Lorenzo Caliendo (School of Management, Yale University)






 

【Abstract】

We develop a dynamic trade model with spatially distinct labor markets facing varying exposure to international trade. The model captures the role of labor mobility frictions, goods mobility frictions, geographic factors, and input-output linkages in determining equilibrium allocations. We show how to solve the equilibrium of the model and take the model to the data without assuming that the economy is at a steady state and without estimating productivities, migration frictions, or trade costs, which can be difficult to identify. We calibrate the model to 22 sectors, 38 countries, and 50 U.S.states. We study how the rise in China's trade for the period 2000 to 2007 impacted U.S. households across more than a thousand U.S. labor markets distinguished by sector and state. We find that the China trade shock resulted in a reduction of about 0.55 million U.S. manufacturing jobs, about 16% of the observed decline in manufacturing employment from 2000 to 2007. The U.S. gains in the aggregate but, due to trade and migration frictions, the welfare and employment effects vary across U.S. labor markets. Estimated transition costs to the new long-run equilibrium are also heterogeneous and reflect the importance of accounting for labor dynamics.




 

【Speaker】


Lorenzo Caliendo is a Professor of Economics at School of Management of Yale University. Professor Caliendo joined Yale SOM in 2011. He holds a BA in Economics (UCUDAL), a MCom (Auckland University), a MA in Economics and a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago. He is also an Associate Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics of Yale University (by courtesy), a Faculty Research Fellow at the NBER, a member of the Research Staff at the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, affiliated Faculty to the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs at Yale University, and an Associate Editor at the Journal of International Economics. Professor Caliendo’s research is focused on understanding and quantifying the economic effects of international trade and migration. He received two Uruguayan National Prizes in Economics (Premio Raúl Trajtenberg and ACADECO). His work follows three main strands. The first strand focuses on the determinants of the trade and welfare effects of commercial and migration policy. The second examines how a firm’s growth and how foreign trade competition affect a firm’s organizational structure, the wage structure inside a firm, and a firm’s productivity. The third strand deals with understanding the macroeconomics effects of international trade and growth.

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