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学术研究 > 新结构经济学专题研讨会(冬令营)
新结构经济学专题研讨会(冬令营)
【第三届】陈凯迹:宏观经济与货币刺激对信贷分配的影响
来源:时间:2018-01-09作者:





宏观经济与货币刺激对信贷分配的影响
——来自中国的证据
陈凯迹


Kaiji Chen is an associate professor of Economics in Emory University. His main research interests are China’s macroeconomy, financial aspects of macroeconomics, fiscal policies and his work has been published in American Economic Review, American Economic Journal, Journal of Monetary Economics and many other top economics journals. He presented his working paper Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China. 


In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks around the world have initiated massive monetary stimulus in an attempt to combat the crisis and rescue the sagging economy. To figure out the consequences of such an unusual change of monetary policy on the financial system and the real economy, one needs an empirical framework to first identify the change of monetary policy and then assess the monetary transmission channel through which the policy change affects the real economy. So, this paper proposed such a framework and applied it to the Chinese economy. 

China has many unique institutional facts, which had to be taken into account in view of the complexity of the Chinese economy. After financial crisis in 2009, Chinese government undertook a 4 trillion Yuan fiscal stimulus and corresponding monetary expansion. However it placed more emphasis on heavy industries.

Through data and econometric methodology, the paper showed two distinctive facets of China’s monetary transmission: (1) monetary policy’s nonlinear effect on GDP growth across two different states of the economy and (2) asymmetric credit allocation across two different sectors. As a result, this expansionary stimulation contributed to more output growth by exacerbating the asymmetric credit allocation in favor of investment in real estate and heavy industries. Moreover, they found that the 2009 monetary stimulus contributed to a temporary 4% increase of GDP growth, out of which three fourths was due to a switch of the monetary rule itself rather than a change in shock volatility. However, short-run GDP growth costed longer-run overcapacity and indebtedness, especially in heavy industries and real estate industries.

To conclude, the paper studied on the dynamic impacts of monetary policy on the Chinese economy and its banking system, through developing empirical framework to figure out observed macroeconomic movements and trace out the dynamic effects on multiple macroeconomic variables.


撰稿人  高婧雯 江深哲

经陈凯迹审定



陈凯迹,现为美国埃默里大学终身副教授和美联储亚特兰大分行研究员。他主要研究领域为宏观经济学和金融经济学。他已在美国经济评论 (American Economic Review),NBER宏观经济年鉴(NBER Macroeconomic Annual) ,美国经济学期刊:宏观经济 (American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics),和货币经济学期刊(Journal of Monetary Economics)等国际顶尖学术期刊发表论文十多篇。近年来,他的研究集中于中国宏观经济,特别是其和金融部门和货币政策的关系,研究课题包括中国房地产泡沫,影子银行和货币政策,经济周期和趋势等。其研究成果被华尔街日报在内的多家国际财经媒体所报道。作为主要课题负责人,他的研究项目“量化中国金融部门和宏观经济的相互关系:结构性方法”于2016年获得美国国家科学基金会(National Science Foundation)的项目资助。 


上一篇:【第三届】袁志刚:中国经济增长动力转换与金融风险防范
下一篇:【第三届】 新结构经济学建模与数学方法专场
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